Natus Vincere vs Falcons Prediction: Model Splits From Market
Our model makes Falcons 51% for the series, while bookmakers imply 56%; Natus Vincere sit at 49% against 38% implied. Best-of-three at IEM Beijing.
Natus Vincere meet Falcons at IEM Beijing 2026 in a best-of-three, scheduled for 09:30 UTC on 2 November. It is a fixture where the supplied series forecast and the bookmaker line point in different directions, and where the recent head-to-head record sits with Falcons. Both sides arrive on 2 wins and 3 losses across their last five matches.
Natus Vincere vs Falcons Model Forecast
The series forecast is close to a coin-flip with a slight Falcons lean: 51% to 49% across the best-of-three. The round-level targets describe a similarly tight match. First to 3 and first to 6 on each of the seven maps sit at 51% Natus Vincere to 49% Falcons, first to 9 moves to 53% to 47%, and the pistol targets are closer still at 50% to 50% and 52% to 48%. The regression projections place the per-map round margin at 1.2 and total rounds at 21.5 on every map, with the series margin favouring Falcons at a projected 0.0.
The map-winner scenarios remain unresolved and are conditional rather than confirmed map selections, and they lean the other way at 56% Natus Vincere to 44% Falcons on each map. Read together, the supplied outputs describe a match where the series call and the map-level scenarios do not point in the same direction, and where the margins involved are small.
Recent Results & Head-to-Head
Both teams arrive with 2 wins and 3 losses from their last five. Natus Vincere's sequence reads LWLWL, with two losses to Vitality and a defeat to WBT Academy around wins over Toobisie and Spirit; Falcons' reads LLWWL, with defeats to Aurora, BETBOOM and Spirit and wins over 9z and Ninjas in Pyjamas. Falcons' most recent listed match is 18 October, a little over two weeks before this fixture.
Head-to-head across seven meetings favours Falcons 5-2. The recent list includes a 2-1 Falcons win at ESL Pro League Season 24 on 6 October and a 2-1 Falcons win at IEM Cologne Major 2026, while Natus Vincere's most recent listed victory in the series was 2-1 at BLAST Open Rotterdam 2026. These are past results rather than a forecast, and the samples involved are small.
Model and Market Comparison
Our model gives Natus Vincere 49% of the series; the supplied bookmaker line prices them at 2.64, an implied 38%. Falcons sit at 51% in the model against 1.80 and 56% implied. The gap between the forecast and the market sits on the Natus Vincere side, where the model is more favourable than the implied price.
Forecast snapshot: 2026-11-01 07:00 UTC. The match page may show newer forecasts and results.
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