Cloud9 vs Karmine Corp: Model Gives KC 64% at Play-Ins
Our model makes Karmine Corp 64% to win this Worlds 2025 Play-Ins best-of-five, above the bookmaker-implied figure for the series.
Cloud9 meet Karmine Corp in the Worlds 2025 Main Event Play-Ins, a best-of-five scheduled for 18:00 UTC on 15 October 2026. Both teams arrive with identical 3-2 records across their last five series, and the two sides have no recorded head-to-head meetings to draw on. The series decides who progresses from the Play-Ins stage.
Cloud9 vs Karmine Corp Model Forecast
Our model makes Karmine Corp the series favourite at 64% against Cloud9's 36%. The map-level winner target is tighter, at 56% to 44% in Karmine Corp's favour, so the series figure is the wider of the two. Side-conditional winner targets diverge more sharply, with Karmine Corp at 63% and Cloud9 at 37% on the red side.
The early-objective targets sit much closer together. First blood is level at 50% each, first dragon leans Karmine Corp at 53%, and first tower leans Cloud9 at 55%. First herald favours Cloud9 at 61% overall but 37% on the red side. No predicted margins or totals accompany these targets, and each projection is conditional rather than a confirmed map pick or result.
Recent Results & Head-to-Head
Both teams show the same last-five shape: 3 wins and 2 losses, listed as LLWWW. Cloud9's defeats came against LYON (1-3 on 3 October) and Team Liquid (1-3 on 27 September), with wins over LYON (3-1), Shopify Rebellion (3-0) and Sentinels (2-0). Karmine Corp lost 0-3 to Movistar KOI and 0-2 to G2 Esports, and beat GIANTX 3-1, SK Gaming 2-0 and Shifters 2-1. With zero previous meetings, head-to-head history offers no separation, and five-series samples are small enough that these results do not establish which side is better placed heading into the Play-Ins.
Model and Market Comparison
Bookmaker lines are available for this series. Cloud9 are quoted at 2.675, an implied 37%, while Karmine Corp are quoted at 2.26, an implied 44%. Our model's 64% series forecast for Karmine Corp sits above that market-implied figure, which is the central difference for this match; the model's 36% for Cloud9 is close to the 37% implied for the same side.
Forecast snapshot: 2026-10-14 15:00 UTC. The match page may show newer forecasts and results.
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