Zest.win v1.4 — Dota 2 is in beta, confidence scores, and a whole lot under the hood
Three weeks in, we're shipping v1.4: Dota 2 leaves 'soon' and enters beta, every prediction now shows you how confident the model really is, and a proper checkout means paid plans are live.
Three weeks ago we opened the doors to the alpha and told you the first month was on us. Since then, you've been hammering it with real matches, real results, and real feedback — and we've been shipping. This is what changed between then and now, in plain English.
Welcome to v1.4.
Dota 2 is in beta (no more "soon")
When we launched, Dota 2 was the one marked "coming soon". That changes today. Dota 2 is live in beta alongside CS2, with predictions for professional matches across every market we cover — winner, objectives, kills, duration, and more.
There's one thing that makes Dota 2 special to us: best-of-two series. In a BO2, a 1–1 draw is a real result (it happens about a third of the time), so we give the draw its own probability instead of pretending it doesn't exist. That slice now shows up right in the match prediction chart.
"How confident is the model, really?"
The single most requested thing since launch. Every prediction now comes with a confidence breakdown right on the match page — plain-language bars that tell you why the model feels the way it does, and how much weight each factor carries:
- How much the models agree — when the ensemble is unanimous, that's a stronger signal than when it's split.
- Calibration health — how well the model's track record matches what it claims (70% should really mean ~70%).
- Data quality for this match — how complete the recent form and history feeding the prediction is.
- Training freshness — how recently the model was trained on new results.
It's not a gimmick. We believe a prediction you can't interrogate isn't worth much — and when the model is unsure, it should say so out loud.
One track record for everything
You could already check per-game accuracy. Now there's a single Track Record page that rolls it all together — results across LoL, CS2 and Dota 2, per market, per model version. Same honesty policy as day one: every prediction gets graded against the real result, and the misses stay visible.
Paid plans are live
The free alpha month closed on July 31, and with it came a real checkout. The pricing page got a full rewrite: a month/year billing toggle, a clear feature matrix, live model accuracy, and a proper payment flow with coupons and confirmation pages. No more "trust us" — you can see exactly what you get and what it costs before you decide.
Site improvements you'll notice
- The blog got a facelift — proper tag filtering, pagination, and a layout that actually shows off the posts (the match previews are written with you in mind).
- Faster, better indexing — the site now serves real sitemaps to Google, so new predictions and pages get found sooner.
- Privacy-friendly analytics — we know what's popular without tracking you around the web.
And under the hood (the short version)
We said the models would keep getting better. That's happening:
- All three games now run on one shared prediction engine, so an improvement to one is an improvement to all.
- Models retrain smarter — they re-train when new results actually change things, and training is faster, so you see the benefit sooner.
- The prediction services and scrapers are monitored around the clock, so when something breaks, we know before you do.
What's next
Alpha was the proof of concept; v1.4 is the "we're serious" release. Expect more markets, tighter models, and fewer rough edges with every version — and keep the feedback coming. It's genuinely shaping the roadmap.
Thanks for being part of this.
See you on the winning side.
— Duc Nguyen
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