Movistar KOI vs T1: Model 44%, Bookmakers 16% at Worlds
Worlds 2026 Swiss BO3: our model gives Movistar KOI 44% to beat T1, while the best bookmaker line implies 16%.
Movistar KOI and T1 meet in the Worlds 2026 Main Event Swiss stage, with their best-of-three series scheduled for 20:00 UTC on 28 October. The central question is the size of the gap between our model's series forecast and the bookmaker line.
Movistar KOI vs T1 Model Forecast
Our model makes T1 a 56% favorite to win the series, with Movistar KOI at 44%. The separate winner target is closer at 48% Movistar KOI and 52% T1. No margin or total projections are supplied.
Objective forecasts are mixed. First herald favors Movistar KOI at 56% to 44%, first blood at 54% to 46%, and first baron at 52% to 48%; first inhibitor favors T1 at 54% to 46%. The red-side splits differ, notably first herald at 34% Movistar KOI and 66% T1, and first tower at 38% Movistar KOI and 62% T1.
Recent Results & Head-to-Head
Movistar KOI's supplied last five reads LWWLL for a 2-3 record; T1's reads WLWLW for 3-2. Those lists include matches at different series lengths, and five results are a limited sample for broader conclusions. T1 has won both supplied head-to-head meetings: 2-0 at Worlds 2025 and 2-1 at Esports World Cup 2025. With only two meetings, the head-to-head is a small sample and does not by itself establish a current-series edge.
Model and Market Comparison
The supplied best bookmaker odds price Movistar KOI at 6.2 (16% implied) and T1 at 1.17 (85% implied). Our model's series forecast is 44% Movistar KOI and 56% T1, so the model and market disagree sharply on the series price.
Forecast snapshot: 2026-10-28 07:00 UTC. The match page may show newer forecasts and results.
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