FURIA vs 9z: model gives FURIA 61% in ESL Pro League
Our model gives FURIA 61% to win this ESL Pro League best-of-three against 9z, while the 1.93 quote on FURIA implies 52%.
FURIA face 9z in ESL Pro League Season 24, with the best-of-three scheduled for 12:00 UTC on 7 October and the forecast snapshot taken at 07:00 UTC that morning. Both teams come into the series on identical recent records of two wins and three losses across their last five outings. The match is the focal point of a forecast that sits noticeably above the bookmaker price on FURIA.
FURIA vs 9z Model Forecast
FURIA are favoured on every target our model covers. The series forecast is FURIA 61% to 9z 39%, and the series-margin regression favours FURIA by a predicted margin of 0.3. The map-level numbers are conditional: for each of Ancient, Anubis, Dust2, Inferno, Mirage, Nuke and Vertigo, the model gives FURIA 59% and 9z 41% to win the map, with those scenarios marked unresolved, so they should be read as projections rather than confirmed map selections or results.
The in-map targets run in the same direction with narrower gaps. FURIA are 56% to reach three rounds first on every listed map, 57% to reach six and 58% to reach nine, against 44%, 43% and 42% for 9z. The pistol targets are tighter still: 54% to 46% for the first pistol of a map and an even 50-50 split for the second. On the regression side, each listed map carries a projected total of 21.3 rounds and a projected round margin of 1.4.
Recent Results & Head-to-Head
FURIA's last five series read 2-3, with a 2-1 win over PARIVISION on 5 October and a 2-0 win over BETBOOM on 3 October, alongside losses to Aurora (1-2), MOUZ (0-2) and Vitality (0-2). 9z are also 2-3, beating BETBOOM 2-0 on 6 October and TYLOO 2-0 on 4 October, and losing to Natus Vincere (0-2), Aurora (0-2) and G2 (1-2). Two five-series samples with identical records do not separate these teams, and neither run establishes momentum going into this match.
Head-to-head, FURIA lead 4-2 across six meetings. The most recent listed results are FURIA wins of 2-1 on 15 August 2026 and 2-1 at IEM Cologne Major 2026, preceded by a 2-0 at the Perfect World Shanghai Major 2024 American RMR; 9z's wins in the sample came at Global Esports Tour Rio 2024 and the IEM Dallas 2024 South America closed qualifier. Historical head-to-head is a record of past series, not a forecast for this one.
Model and Market Comparison
FURIA are quoted at 1.93, an implied probability of 52%, against the 61% our model assigns them for the series. On the other side, 9z are priced at 3.11 while our model rates them 39% to win the series; the supplied pricing comparison records that difference as a 7% edge on 9z at GG.BET. Model probabilities and bookmaker prices measure different things, and the size of the gap on both sides of this match is the notable feature of the forecast.
Forecast snapshot: 2026-10-07 07:00 UTC. The match page may show newer forecasts and results.
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