Bilibili Gaming vs Karmine Corp: model and market diverge
Our model makes Bilibili Gaming 62% to win this Worlds 2026 Swiss BO1, while bookmaker prices imply 33% for the same side.
Bilibili Gaming face Karmine Corp in the Swiss stage of the Worlds 2026 Main Event, with the match set for 18:00 UTC on 26 October and played as a single Best of 1. Both arrive off partial recent runs, Bilibili Gaming at three wins from five and Karmine Corp at four from five, and the supplied records show no prior meeting between the two organisations. With no head-to-head history to draw on, the pre-match picture rests on the forecast and the market lines.
Bilibili Gaming vs Karmine Corp Model Forecast
Our model makes Bilibili Gaming a 62% favourite on the series-winner target, leaving Karmine Corp at 38%, and reads 65% to 35% on the winner target. Because the format is a single map, the series and map outcomes coincide, so the difference between those two supplied targets reflects how each is defined rather than an additional map to be decided. The objective markets are less one-sided: Bilibili Gaming is given 63% for first herald, 62% for first to five kills, 59% for first tower, 58% for first inhibitor and 57% for first to ten, while first blood sits at 53% and first dragon tilts slightly to Karmine Corp at 51%. First baron is quoted as an even 50-50 split.
The red-side figures are conditional projections rather than confirmed side assignments. On red side, first herald swings to Karmine Corp at 63%, first tower to 54% and first blood to 53%, while Bilibili Gaming holds first dragon at 52%, first to ten at 60% and first to five at 52%. Those should be read as scenario numbers attached to a side, not as settled selections.
Recent Results & Head-to-Head
Bilibili Gaming's last five reads WLLWW, three wins and two losses. The most recent entry is a 1-0 win over Team Liquid on 24 October, following a 0-1 loss to Movistar KOI the day before; the earlier results reach back to September and include a 1-3 loss and a 3-0 win against Anyone's Legend plus a 1-0 win over Team WE. Karmine Corp's last five reads LWWWW, four wins and one loss, opening with a 0-1 defeat to LYON on 24 October and including a 1-0 win over Anyone's Legend, two wins over MVK Esports and a 3-2 win over Cloud9.
The two organisations have no recorded meetings, so head-to-head offers nothing to weigh here. The five-match windows also mix single-map and multi-map series across different dates, which limits how much the raw win counts can carry on their own.
Model and Market Comparison
The bookmaker market points in the opposite direction to the forecast. The best available prices quote Bilibili Gaming at 3.07, an implied 33%, and Karmine Corp at 1.405, an implied 71%, against a model line of 62% for Bilibili Gaming. That is a wide divergence for a single-map fixture, and the supplied edge figure on the Bilibili Gaming series-winner price is 30%. GG.bet's 3.18 on the same side is quoted alongside it. This is a comparison of published numbers, not a recommendation.
Forecast snapshot: 2026-10-26 15:00 UTC. The match page may show newer forecasts and results.
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